As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, the future of Europe’s defense and NATO faces uncertainty. Bastiaan van Apeldoorn, professor of global political economy and geopolitics at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, believes the outcome will significantly influence Europe’s defense landscape.
Van Apeldoorn notes that Trump’s first term (2016-2020) marked a period of tension for transatlantic relations. Trump’s “America First” approach undermined the NATO alliance and raised questions about the U.S.’s commitment to European security. His threat to withdraw from NATO, though never realized, cast doubt over the alliance. According to van Apeldoorn, “Trump’s re-election could severely strain NATO, pushing the EU toward more defense autonomy.”
During Trump’s presidency, Europe already started to consider to become more independent militarily. If Trump wins the elections again, van Apeldoorn argues, the EU would likely feel forced to speed up its plans for increased defense spending, leading to decisions that will directly affect European citizens. “We’re already seeing cuts in areas like higher education so higher military spending can be funded,” he points out. “A second Trump term would likely amplify these pressures, leading to even higher defense spending in Europe.”
Harris vs. Trump: The Future of NATO
While Trump’s stance on NATO remains unpredictable, van Apeldoorn sees Harris as a more stabilizing figure. “Harris is expected to follow Biden’s lead on NATO,” he explains. “Under her presidency, Europe would likely see more continuity in defense relations, though the U.S. focus on China as a global rival will still affect transatlantic dynamics.”
This shift toward China, according to van Apeldoorn, will be a major factor in U.S.-EU relations, regardless of the election outcome. Both Trump and Harris will maintain a focus on countering Chinese influence, forcing Europe to choose its position carefully. “Europe will have to decide whether to fully align with U.S. policies on China, which could strain EU-China economic relations,” says van Apeldoorn. ‘’Aligning with the U.S. could maintain good relations with them on the other hand, but the question is whether it’s in Europe’s best interest to follow America’s lead in everything.’’
A Push for European Defense Autonomy
Van Apeldoorn believes that even if Harris wins, the EU may continue to build more autonomous defense capabilities. While Harris is less likely to undermine NATO as Trump might, the overall trend of Europe taking on more responsibility for its defense is likely to grow.
“There’s been growing perception within Europe that it needs to invest more in its own defense, regardless of who is in the White House,” van Apeldoorn says. “While I don’t expect Trump to fully pull out of NATO, his actions could weaken the alliance, forcing the EU to prepare for a future where it is more self-reliant.”
Bastiaan van Apeldoorn emphasizes that the U.S. election will be a turning point for Europe’s defense and NATO. While Trump’s re-election could undermine NATO and push the EU toward defense autonomy, a Harris presidency would likely stabilize transatlantic relations but not necessarily improve them. However, both scenarios present challenges for Europe as it navigates shifting global power landscape, particularly in its relationship with China.
